Allan Lichtman 2024 Keystone Project. Lichtman's model is grounded in the idea that presidential elections are referendums on the performance of the incumbent administration. Allan lichtman (distinguished professor of history, american university, and author, “predicting the next president:

American university’s allan lichtman, who formulated 13 keys to the incumbent party winning the white house, says the democrats’ switch to vice president kam. And now he’s predicting democratic nominee kamala.